Dubai Racing Carnival – 26th January 2012

Today sees another instalment of the excellent Dubai Racing Carnival (#DRC) over at Meydan, and there is plenty of competitive action to get our teeth into. A meeting like this is really appreciated by us flat fans at this time of year, especially with the current dross on offer on the home front it helps warm the cockles and brings April that little bit closer.

I didn’t expect much from Ariete Arrollador last time, but the son of Kingsalsa travelled extremely well on the inside rail, and looked like throwing down a challenge to Barbecue Eddie at one point until flattening out inside the final furlong. The time for the race was fairly respectable, and you’d expect him to go pretty close this afternoon based on that effort from a decent draw.

Strictly on figures the race is topped by Silaah based on his rating behind Captain Obvious last time, but I just can’t see him being able to give away weight to this field off a mark of 105, and is more likely to lead them in and weaken on the approach to the final furlong as the weight begins to tell. Another which will go well dropped back in trip is Krypton Factor who undoubtedly got the run of the race last time up behind Iguazu Falls but has posted some good figures on the Tapeta in the past, and back down to six ought to suit him, but is most likely to find one or two too good for him.

In the next race (3:20) and I really like the claims of As De Trebol, who is massively overpriced in this at around 7-1. Third in the Burj Nahaar last year behind Mendip on the Tapeta, the time clocked for that race was brilliant and would give As De Trebol a favourite’s chance of winning this, if you can forgive him his run in the Godolphin Mile (went off too quick) then he looks a solid proposition back on the Tapeta for the first time.

Last time out on the turf and his first run in Dubai he set an absolutely outrageous pace with the Mubarak Bin Shafya trained Iguazu Falls. They’re miles clear on the approach into the straight and As De Trebol quickens away from that horse travelling extremely well. He continued to roll up until around the furlong marker, until Time Prisoner comes through and picks him off and the closers begin to reel him in inside the final furlong, to eventually finish fourth.

Iguazu Falls was well beaten in the end, but came out and won next time out at 25-1, beating Krypton Factor who has posted some good figures for me at the Carnival last year, so I think it is worth upgrading this run of As De Trebol given his jockey blew his brains right across the desert.

Hopefully Borja Fayos can ride the grey son of Tapit with a little more restraint on the front end and with more tactical nous and I think he’ll go very, very close. Should he go off too quick, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Spectacle Du Mars pick up the pieces with a sustained late burst, and he is too big at 16-1 in the current market.

Next up at (4:00) is a competitive seven furlong handicap on the turf which see’s last time out impressive winner Time Prisoner returns to do battle. He has to give away weight to 2000 Guineas Trial winner Dark Matter, but I really think that horse was a beneficiary of how the race panned out the last day, and arguably would have been beaten by Kinglet, had that got a better run at things.

Time Prisoner is having to give away 8lbs to Dark Matter, but on my figures he should be up to doing just that and although I think he will win there is no value in his price at 7-4 (Boylesports).

Next up the (4:40) and a handicap back on Tapeta where if Belgian Bill can produce his latest turf effort should make this pretty much a formality. His speed figure last time was that of a group class animal and has only been raised 2lbs for that effort, and considering he has ran well on all-weather before you’d have to think he’ll have no problems with the Tapeta surface.

One I expect a better run from is Nationalism who was given no chance by Ajtebi last time out, but kept on eye-catchingly well into the straight down the widest outside and narrowly missed out on third place behind Rostrum. He is untried on all-weather/Tapeta and is potentially the type of horse that’ll go well on it, he has his chances at around 12-1, and is a few points overpriced in my view.

Sarrsar is unbeaten on the all-weather and ran well to run down Capponi last time (who had run of race and no excuses) but the time of that contest suggests they’ll have to improve rapidly to feature with the principles in this, and as such they are massively underpriced.

Up at (5:15) is the Al Rashidiya which sees Musir return after an imperious success on the Tapeta last time. Trying turf this time he has to give away 3lb to Presvis the Dubai Duty Free Winner from 2011, and the pair are very closely matched on my numbers. I think at the prices Presvis would be a better bet of the two but neither price makes me want to get involved really, so I’m going to sit back and just enjoy the contest – I also expect a big run from Win For Sure at around 16-1, and he could rank as an each-way alternative to the front two.

Finally we round things off at (5:50) with a handicap on the turf where Fallen Idol is priced up as 3-1 favourite. I said something similar last week with Naqshabban being the most ridiculous price I’d ever seen at Meydan and it ended up winning but I think this one is very similar in levels of ridiculousness.
His best form as come on right-handed tracks hasn’t looked the quickest of individuals and generally doesn’t win very often yet somehow has found himself at the head of the market here – I’d be looking at taking him on for sure.

There are a couple of alternatives in this in the shape of Rostrum (4-1) and Al Shemali (12-1) and I’ll take one of the two to get the job done here.

[notification_box]1pt win Ariette Arrollador @ 6-1 with Ladbrokes
2pt win As De Trebol @ 7-1 with Bet365, Ladbrokes
1pt win Belgian Bill @ 11-2 with William Hill
1pt win Nationalism @ 12-1 with William Hill. [/notification_box]

 

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