Trainer By Month System – With A Twist

I’ve been looking at a few ways of livening the place up a little of late, and especially the ‘Systems’ area. Now those of you who have known me long enough will know I’m not really a big fan of National Hunt racing and therefore very rarely bet on it.

I do however notice that trainers over the sticks tend to follow a similar pattern with when they get there horses to peak each season, and you can profit by following this very simple system.

I’m going to begin with the month of December, and the trainers you want to be following during this month of the year are Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, and David Pipe.

Backing each horse from these three stables blind over the last 5 seasons (from 2003) in the month of December will have resulted in a profit of £2,137.60 to £10 level stakes.

The year on year stats are as follows in year order…

2008 – Bets: 193 – Wins: 36 – P/L: -£33.90 – SR: 18.65%
2007 – Bets: 187 – Wins: 35 – P/L: £673.30 – SR: 18.72%
2006 – Bets: 243 – Wins: 57 – P/L: £943.40 – SR: 23.55%
2005 – Bets: 134 – Wins: 33 – P/L: £350.20 – SR: 24.63%
2004 – Bets: 133 – Wins: 24 – P/L: -£401.40 – SR: 18.05%
2003 – Bets: 132 – Wins: 28 – P/L: £606.00 – SR: 21.21%

Quite a heavy loss in 2004, and a minor loss last year in 2008, but an overall profit of £2,137.60 for £10 units, working at a strike-rate of around 21% (20.86% to be precise). The place strike-rate for all the years combined is at 41.92% but as you can imagine from such well connected yards, the profit from each-way betting is slightly lower than when backing outright win.

So I decided to try and reduce the amount of losses from 2004 and 2008 and see if there was anything in the patterns which has led to this leaking of funds. I decided by going by track, and it is interesting to note, the track with the most profit is indeed Ascot.

So I’ve taken out the tracks which have shown a loss throughout the month of December over the last 5 years, and I am now left with…

Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick.

Still a big enough selection to ensure this is a truly run system, but the amount of bets have almost been halved now down to 557 bets throughout December, with 123 wins and a minor increase on the strike-rate (22.08%).

I’ve compiled the year on year stats below for your viewing…

2008 – Bets: 115 – Wins: 20 – P/L: £171.70 – SR: 17.39%
2007 – Bets: 93 – Wins: 21 – P/L: £964.80 – SR: 22.58%
2006 – Bets: 138 – Wins: 34 – P/L: £913.40 – SR: 24.64%
2005 – Bets: 65 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £221.30 – SR: 24.62%
2004 – Bets: 69 – Wins: 16 – P/L: -£27.30 – SR: 23.19%
2003 – Bets: 77 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £674.90 – SR: 20.78%

As you can see that by following horses from just the tracks mentioned above, you’ve already cut down the -£400 loss from 2004, to just £27.30 – and the minor loss suffered in 2008 is now a profit of £171.70 so immediately we’ve made progress on the system front.

Overall Breakdown

Bets: 557
Wins: 123
SR: 22.08%
Profit: £2,918.80
Places: 248
PSR: 44.52%

This system will begin from December 1st 2009, and will run right up until the last day of the month, and hopefully will make a few quid profit in the process ahead of the festive celebrations.

System Rules:

Trainers Followed: Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, David Pipe
Tracks Used: Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick.
Month: December Only
Staking: £10 win single per qualifier

FOLLOW THIS DAILY ON OUR FORUM!!