Three selections from the evening meeting at Bath, found below. Monday was the last day of posting and it was extremely disappointing, especially after Heyward Girl was so well-backed (SP of 9/2). Her trainer said he expected her to finish in the first three at least but it was not to be, as she was pulled-up and dismounted after never travelling. The false start probably affected her negatively too and hopefully she’s alright and will be able to continue racing. Fingers crossed. I’ve found a few I like for the evening meeting at Bath today as I only looked on the off-chance. I did fancy Pleasant Day in the Carlisle Bell but I just think that he’ll run well without winning, even with the blinkers reapplied (watch him sluice in now!). Selections below.
It may look a bit obvious but CHORAL BEE (18:10) should have an outstanding chance now upped to a trip that she’s certainly bred to appreciate and has always looked like a middle-distance handicapper in the making. Now tackling that trip in this grade, you’d have to be extremely disappointing if she didn’t improve a fair bit past this mark of 57. She’s related to plenty of very decent middle-distance horses, including one who was placed in the Melbourne Cup, so she’s certainly bred for this trip today. Her four starts to date have suggested she’d come into her own in handicaps. That’s exactly what occurred last time when dropped in trip (had shaped OK over 10f on her final start in a Maiden) to a mile. She stuck to her task well that day, not really showing the requisite speed to be a mile specialist but looking like an obvious candidate for a step up in distance. She goes a whole 4f up in trip today but looks to need it and I feel she should be much shorter than her current odds suggests. She showed plenty last time, will appreciate the step up in trip, along with the ground continuing to dry and she seemed to enjoy the Bath track last time, which is an obvious plus. Her sire has a record of 4/20 at Bath and Henry Candy has a 5/26 at this course, so there are plenty of stats to suggest that this is the place for her to be running and in a weak enough race, she should take plenty of beating. As always, there’s always potential for a big handicap improver but I think I’ve found that horse in Choral Bee and I’d have expected her to be around the 3/1 mark, so looks a big price at her current odds.
RED SENOR (19:40) has had plenty of excuses since winning (a poor) maiden on seasonal reappearance and is attractively priced to invest in today, especially as if more goes his way than on previous occasions, he’ll go extremely close. He showed promise on all three juvenile starts (without winning), coming up against some fair types in maiden races, but was put away after July 2011 and wasn’t seen until this March. He was reported to have strengthened up over the winter and won a poor maiden over 5f comfortably, doing most of the work on the bit and winning well. That race hasn’t worked out with zero winners subsequently but Red Senor has proved that his current handicap mark is far from unfair. His handicap debut at Nottingham was full of promise, probably inconvenienced by the fact he had to race up the centre (most of the actual was stands side) before meeting trouble on his penultimate start at Windsor, where he’d have finished much closer had he not suffered interference. His last start is perfectly excusable too, racing very close to a hot pace on soft ground, with hold-up horses filling the first two places. It was understandable that he couldn’t finish off his race that day. He may just be a horse that is constantly unlucky but the smaller field today won’t harm his chances in that regard and he’s been dropped another 1lb in the handicap, which could only benefit his chances. The favourite could be a tough nut to crack as she looks to be going the right way but Red Senor has shown enough in the past to suggest a mark in the 80’s is far from a pipe dream and granted better luck in-running or none of suicidal tactics that ensued last time, then he’s more a 5/1 chance in my book and is worthy of a bet at these odds.
MADAME FEU (21:10) looks in dire need of 6f after a promising enough handicap debut over the minimum trip and granted the extra distance here today, she looks capable of a bit better at a low grade. Her two best efforts have been at this Bath track, including on her latest start. She was outpaced early on but finished the race well enough to be 4th, suggesting that a step up to further wouldn’t go amiss. This is corroborated by her pedigree, where she’s related to three winners at 6f+. That race was only modest but the form hasn’t worked out badly, with the winner getting in front again and the placed horses running to a similar level again since. Madame Feu obviously acts here at Bath which is a big plus and the fact that she has the pedigree for 6f, alongside the running style, suggests that this contest will be ideal. She is no world-beater but has claims to be rated around the mid-60’s and shouldn’t be far away at all. 7/1 is a fair price, as I’d say she should be around the 5/1 mark and is worth the usual stake. No further rain (none forecast) would enhance her chances.
18:10 Bath – Choral Bee; 3pts @ 13/2 BetVictor (bog)
19:40 Bath – Red Senor; 2pts @ 13/2 BetVictor, William Hill (bog)
21:10 Bath – Madame Feu; 2pts @ 15/2 Betfred (bog)[/notification_box]