I know this is a week away, and we still have some decent racing this weekend to get through but I was browsing through the form earlier and was interested in one at decent odds.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is without doubt the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which this year, runs from Friday 11th November to Sunday 13th November. Run just a shade over two and a half miles (2m4.5f), it is a premier handicap chase which over the last few years has attracted some of the very best staying chasers around.

The likes of the ill-fated Exotic Dancer took this in 2006, future Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander won in 2008, and other greats like Our Vic, Fondmort, Cyfor Malta have all won this race prior to further success.

Last year Long Run ran third in this race, before progressing to win both the King George and Gold Cup in quite impressive fashion.

A quick look at the weather forecast for next week (metcheck.com) suggests we should be in for some dry weather in and around the Cheltenham area so hopefully we will get decent racing ground (we usually get good/good to soft at this time of year).

Poquelin (if he runs) tops the weights off a mark of 170, and although he has won handicaps over this trip off marks of 163 and 170 it is difficult to imagine him winning this race with so many unexposed and improving horses in the field, he remains an admirable and high-class sort though.

Should Poquelin not line up, Wishful Thinking will move up to the heads of the weights but for the time being he sits 6lb off Poquelin in the weights. On form he appears held by Noble Prince on their running here at the Cheltenham Festival, and it is difficult to imagine him reversing that judging by how impressive Noble Prince has been on his comeback.

19 horses aged ten and above have run in this race in the past ten years, and not a single one of those made the frame, so you can rule out Scotsirish, Holmwood Legend and Finger Onthe Pulse really on the basis of that one stat.

7 of the last 10 winners of this race had previously won at Cheltenham, which as we know is a big advantage given the stiffness of the fences.

10 out of 10 had won a chase at class 2 or above, and all ten had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in two or less).

One which immediately catches my eye in this is the Nicky Henderson trained Dave’s Dream, who returns after a long layoff since disappointing over C&D last December in the Vote A.P Gold Cup off a 1lb higher mark. He was given reminders after just the fourth fences, and was beaten before both the trip and his 11lb hike in the weights off his previous victory came into play, and was clearly not on a going day.

A quick glance through the form of Dave’s Dream reveals a rather alarming performance pattern. When the horse returns to the course off a break of six months or more his form reads (11111), which when you compare to his figures after a recent run (01663400) it reveals a pattern which would otherwise have been concealed to the normal viewer.

Dave’s Dream runs his best races fresh, and is unbeaten when returning from a break. His latest effort after a break came when readily accounting for a decent field when winning over two miles at the track off a mark of 137 and judging by the way he won that day he would have won with another 10lb on his back as well (he is due to carry 147). Still pretty much unexposed having just had three starts in handicaps over fences (only one when returning from a break, which he won) he could still be concealing a fair amount of ability from the handicapper.

When winning that race at Cheltenham, he ran over half a second quicker than Gauvain did over the same C&D (rated 142 at the time) suggesting he is capable of running to his current mark, providing he is fresh.

The son of Anshan returns here off the back of an eleven month break, and Nicky Henderson quite possibly may have tinkered with his breathing again (has had breathing operation before) in the meantime and he rates a very interesting runner in what is a competitive race.

The probable decent ground on offer will certainly suit him also, and although there is a slight concern about him getting the trip – his breeding suggest he’ll have no problems whatsoever with it, and this could be the year he wins a nice race.