Around 36 hours remains until “the race that stops a nation” and one horse will add itself to racing history winning the biggest race in the whole of Australia. Question is though, who will it be?

It has been six years since Makybe Diva made it a historic third win in consecutive years, and she was the first horse since Think Big back in 1975 to retain the Melbourne Cup after winning it the previous year. The Alain Royer-Dupre trained Americain made history last year becoming the first French trained horse to win the Melbourne Cup, and he bids to make history once again by retaining his Melbourne Cup crown.

It wouldn’t be the Melbourne Cup without ‘Cups King’ Bart Cummings saddling a runner, and the 12-time winner of this feature race has two entrants this year with Illo and Precedence representing him.

Americain – Has the feat of carrying in his bid to retain his Cup crown, and a weight carrying feat of that nature was completed only by Makybe Diva when winning her third consecutive Melbourne Cup within the last 30 years, so it looks a tall order for the French trained runner. That said he looked improved when winning the Drake International at Moonee Valley when last scene, and he won one of the most competitive Melbourne Cup’s for some time last year. He is up around 8lbs on his winning weight last year, and most likely will get found out by one or two better weighted individuals.

Jukebox Jury – European group 1 winners usually get heavily penalised for winning such races, and the same appears to have happened here to Jukebox Jury after dead-heating to win the Irish St Leger last time. He gets around 2.2lbs from Americain who he beat 5.5L (in receipt of 4lb) in France in the Prix Kergolay. At the weights he should finish very close to Americain, and possibly narrowly in-front but I think Americain is a different animal out here in Australia and his running style will be better suited to the race than that of Jukebox Jury.

Dunaden – Winner of the Geelong Cup last time out for Mikael Delzanges but would arguably have been beaten by Bauer (didn’t get in) had the Luca Cumani trained gelding had a better run through that race, and he only gets 2lb reversal with Jukebox Jury whom he was beaten 5L by out in France a couple of months or so ago.

Drunken Sailor – A much better horse when allowed to hear his hooves rattle on the quicker ground, he was ridden with restraint on his first run in Australia last time in the Caulfield Cup, on a day where those on the pace seemed to hold an advantage. He is a pound better off with Lucas Cranach for that running, but I feel Lucas Cranach run a much better race from a wide position, and I think Drunken Sailor is a horse that will either place or run midfield – but doesn’t look good enough to win to my eye.

Glass Harmonium – Has slowly been improving out in Australia since his switch from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard out in England and bagged the Mackinnon Stakes on Friday night over ten furlongs. His performance was quite impressive given most of those on the pace throughout the day seemed to capitulate in the latter stages of the race but this extra distance of six furlongs here will surely find him out. Glass Harmonium barely stayed ten furlongs here in the UK, and when you take into account his barrier draw of 23 and his prominent running style, I can’t have him at all – won’t stay, and certainly wont win.

Manighar – Seventh in the race last year, connections alluded to his run being hampered by the soft ground hampering his effort and that he would be a much better horse when the ground got quicker. His run in the Caulfield Cup was somewhat disappointing, and I don’t think the horse is good enough at this sort of level. He also doesn’t look the most genuine of types and its noticeable Luca Cumani reaches for the blinkers on this horse for the first time in the big one, Damien Oliver retains the ride but there are more in here with more promising profiles.

Unusual Suspect – A grade 1 winner in America, it has been well documented the problems he has encountered with his feet. He runs in first time ‘concussion plates’ on Tuesday, such equipment is used on horses prone to jarring up, shin soreness and lameness especially when encountering dry tracks. American distance horses aren’t as good as those here in Europe, and although he posted a solid effort in the Caulfield Cup behind Southern Speed I can’t see him being good enough to make the frame here.

Fox Hunt – Has improved leaps and bounds throughout 2011 and gets the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa who flies out to partner him for Mark Johnston. Last seen winning a Group 3 in Germany, he gets 8lbs from Jukebox Jury and 10lbs from Americain at the top of the weights, and on official figures that gives him every chance of being in the shake up here.

Lucas Cranach – Has solid form with Arc winner Danedream, and judging by his wins over in Germany is laden with an abundance of stamina that should see further improvement over this sort of trip. He run a huge race in the Caulfield Cup challenging ten wide on the turn into the straight to challenge Southern Speed, but the extra ground negated took its toll in the closing stages and his jockey looked after him. It transpired the horse had picked up a hoof injury prior to that run, and ran in bar plates (believed by some to take 4-5L off a horse’s optimum performance). When you take that into account, and how wide he ran the final bend at Caulfield, he has to have a massive chance now the bar plates are taken off. He run very similar sectionals throughout as Green Moon (who he gave 3kg too), and better sectionals than Southern Speed (3.5kg) but the wide posting did for him, he looks a very decent bet this year.

Mourayan – Placed in the Irish Derby over in the UK in his three-year-old campaign, Mourayan has taken longer than many to acclimatise in Australia. He is finally beginning to get his act together though, and his defeat of Niwot (giving away 2.5kg) in the Bart Cummings on October 2nd reads well in the contexts of Niwot’s dominant performance in the Lexus at the weekend. Mourayan was finishing faster than anything behind Glass Harmonium in the Mackinnon Stakes, and although found to be slightly lame post-race he has to be high up on the shortlist given his back class.

Precedence – I don’t think even Bart Cummings can coax a Melbourne Cup out of this gelded son of Zabeel and he was well beaten in the Mackinnon this weekend. He has a good draw in 2, but isn’t one for me and looks to be just making up the numbers.

Red Cadeaux – A runaway winner of the Curragh Cup in June, he was beaten 3L by Jukebox Jury in the Prix Kergolay off level weights (he receives 8lbs in Melbourne Cup), and judging by his run in the Irish St Leger when not knocked around to finish third off levels he should theoretically reverse form with Jukebox Jury given this pull at the weights. Ed Dunlop would prefer the heavens to open, but I just feel his lack of tactical speed could prove his undoing but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finished in the top six.

Hawk Island – Has so far posted an in-different performance campaign in his preparations for the Melbourne Cup. A cracking second at Randwick in the Metropolitan Handicap (giving 8lb to The Verminator) was followed by a poor run in the Caulfield Cup, and he isn’t one to be trusted from what I can read into the form and he wasn’t anything other than ordinary here in the UK. He is also drawn in barrier 18, the only stall yet to produce a Melbourne Cup winner so that comfortably rules him out – given his pedigree suggests he’ll struggle to see out this two mile trip.

Illo – The second and most intriguing runner from the Bart Cummings squad and this German import comes into the race on the back of a third to Americain in the Drake International. His sectionals from that race shown a rapid decline of power towards the end of his race, and a quick check of his pedigree suggests he’ll struggle to see out this two mile trip despite his German pedigree. That said it was his first run since July and knowing Bart Cummings he would have left something to work on, and his 3.5kg turnaround with Americain will help him significantly but he has far too much speed in his pedigree for me, and although he could finish in the frame, I’m looking elsewhere.

Lost In The Moment – From the UK and Godolphin camp, Lost In The Moment has steadily improved throughout the year since being upped in trip. He came second in the Goodwood Cup behind stable-mate Opinion Poll and arguably would have won with more luck in running, and wasn’t knocked around on his latest start at Ascot. Ridden by William Buick and gets a pound from closely matched Fox Hunt, he has a decent draw in stall 3 and this looks like Godolphin’s best opportunity to date of landing the Melbourne Cup – definite place claims.

Modun – Won well on the all-weather last time and gets the assistance of Kerrin McEvoy, but only beat Lost In The Moment by 1L in the Ebor when in receipt of 4lbs, and off levels here it is difficult to see him finishing in-front of his stable-mate.

At First Sight – Adopted mostly pacemaking duties when trained by Aidan O’Brien in Ireland throughout this three-year-old career. He ranked behind the likes of Midas Touch, Jan Vermeer, and Cape Blanco at the time and aside from Cape Blanco’s exploits in America neither of the remainder have done much for the form since. He is certainly bred to stay this trip but his form behind December Draw (ordinary horse in the UK) in the Turnbull Stakes wouldn’t be good enough to win and on a line through Tanby (Dunaden gave him 11lb and a beating, At First Sight gave him 9lb and lost) Dunaden holds At First Sight on form, and it’s difficult to see this son of Galileo in the placings.

Moyenne Corniche – Winner of the Ebor over here in the UK, Moyenne Corniche has steadily improved under the watchful eye of Brian Ellison since being upped in trip. He was finishing off well behind Shewan in the Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield, and on a line through Tanby (gave 6lb for length beating) looks held by At First Sight and Dunaden and looks like he will struggle to win, should finish in the top ten though.

Saptapadi – On the same terms with Lucas Cranach on their Caulfield Cup run where I can offer no excuses as to why Saptapadi was beaten so far. He showed promise at York earlier in the season behind Twice Over but has since disappointed. I can’t see him featuring in the race if I’m honest from his draw in 22, despite being a full brother to stamina laden Patkai.

Shamrocker – The first filly in 23 years to win the AJC Derby earlier in the season, she has since been disappointing this campaign putting in poor efforts in the Underwood and Turnbull Stakes. However I witnessed some sign of revival in the Turnbull Stakes and she wasn’t knocked around in the straight at Flemington before staying on quite well under hands and heels riding into seventh after looking like dropping out the screen. She wasn’t on song at Moonee Valley last time in the Cox Plate but she looks to be crying out for this sort of trip, runs well at Flemington and is bred to stay the distance – however the draw in 24 makes things rather difficult. Has a place chance if getting luck in running.

The Verminator – Will appreciate going back up in trip after a dismal second-last placing in the Mackinnon Stakes at the weekend, but he doesn’t look to have the class to trouble the principles here and looks to be making up the numbers.

Tullamore – Won the Brisbane Cup at Eagle Farm back in June defeating Glass Harmonium, he shortly went off the boil for a couple races before returning to form with a game third in the Caulfield Cup behind Southern Speed. He had a better trip through that day than Lucas Cranach (giving away 3lb) and looked to have no excuses in defeat. He returned a week later posting an even better effort finishing second to Americain in the Moonee Valley Cup getting just 2lb from last year’s Melbourne Cup winner for a 2.25L defeat. The son of Silvabeel gets a turnaround of 11lbs at the weights for that defeat and the Gai Waterhouse trained gelding holds very solid claims, and is likely to play ‘catch me if you can’ into the stretch.

Niwot – The beneficiary of a fierce tempo set in the Lexus Stakes at the weekend at Flemington; he drew right away from his rivals to score impressively but is held by Mourayan on my interpretation of the form. I think he’ll prove vulnerable to any stop-start tempo usually seen in the Melbourne Cup and I think he’ll struggle to improve on that win on Saturday.

Older Than Time – Managed a solid second to Stand To Gain in the Sydney Cup earlier in the year but has since failed to build upon that effort this spring. She rounded off her Melbourne Cup prep with a dismal run behind Niwot in the Lexus and it is hard to imagine she will be troubling the judge here on most recent form.

Verdict:
A very open and competitive renewal this year of the Melbourne Cup, it is quite intriguing as to trying to fathom which horse it will go to. With a few of the European contingent yet to race out in Australia, it is difficult to gauge how they will perform ‘Down Under’. From what I have seen and the sectionals I have witnessed I can’t see past the impressive LUCAS CRANACH now he has the bar plates off. That Caulfield Cup run was sensational given it came off a break, and given he’ll strip fitter for that outing and has a good barrier draw in 11, he shouldn’t be out the frame.

Of the remainder it looks a very close call, but I think Tullamore could run a decent race upped in trip and has done nothing wrong in preparation so far, with Lost In The Moment faring the best of the European contingent in third.

1st – Lucas Cranach
2nd – Tullamore
3rd – Lost In The Moment
4th – Shamrocker

2.5pts each-way Lucas Cranach @ 10-1 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, Bet365, Boylesports and WilliamHill