Breeders Cup Turf

sarafina_2465024

A race which let’s face it, should fall to the Europeans here. We have farmed the race in recent years winning 10 of the last 12 renewals of this race and once again we look to have a strong hand for this renewal.

Won last year by Dangerous Midge in what now looks a poor renewal, he has beaten one rival home in four starts since and doesn’t line up here to defend his crown.

Midday goes for this race instead of the F&M Turf, and I think they should have sent her there instead really. She has shown enough ability to mix it with the boys in the past, and her run in the Champion Stakes at Ascot (broke the track record) reads well in the context of this race but I feel there are other who last out this trip a little better than this daughter of Oasis Dream and she looks more likely to fill the place.

St Nicholas Abbey comes here off a solid effort in the Arc when finishing fifth behind Danedream in course record time. He sat close to the pace throughout and took up the lead at the three furlong pole before being edged out of it late on. He is drawn on the inside here under Joseph O’Brien and one would expect them to sit very close to the pace on ground probably quicker than ideal – he gets the lasix first time though and the 2F straight here could play into his advantage but he is too hit and miss for my liking, but remains unbeaten on left handed tracks.

Sea Moon is pretty much the forgotten horse in here I think after an awesome performance to win the Voltigeur and was given a pathetic ride by Olivier Peslier in the St Leger (which can be ignored) when last seen. He has been lightly campaigned this season and has the benefit of Ryan Moore riding and lasix for the first time – major shout with the Stoute yard creeping back into form.

Sarafina is clearly the form horse in the race, but those close to her have the benefit of lasix for the first time whereas her trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre elects not to use the medication on his wonderful filly and that could prove a costly mistake. She is unbeaten in two starts on left-handed tracks and has a lethal turn of foot should the race prove tactical and certainly has a favourites chance.

Await The Dawn almost died after his run in the Juddmonte International at York in August and hasn’t been seen since. Aidan O’Brien believes he is more of a Classic horse but runs him here instead, I think this is more a fact finding mission with a view to next year but he gets a combination of lasix and Julien Leparoux for the first time and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Deans Kitten looks the best of the Americans based on that running on second to Cape Blanco in the Turf Classic at Belmont, and although Cape Blanco is an admirable and durable sort, he wouldn’t be in the same league as the likes of Sarafina and Midday over in Europe.

In what looks a tough race to decipher it very much looks down to what sort of pace will be on offer and from what I can read it looks like being a very tactical affair. Which means I have to side with SARAFINA whose tactical speed gives her a big advantage over her rivals and she is also the class horse in the field – slight worry about the lack of lasix though, and would rate Sea Moon as a potent threat?

1pt win Sarafina @ 11-4 with SportingBet and BlueSQ



This post was written by The Duke

Owner of OHRacing; and one of many racing enthusiasts around the world. Try to specialise in the art of speed figures, growing increasingly interested in Australian racing. Hates the winter and generally dislikes National Hunt racing (apart from the Cheltenham Festival). Spend far too much time burning the midnight oil inputting ratings into spreadsheets and generally trying to make the game pay.

Can be seen on Twitter @OHRacing, and marauding through the OHRacing betting community.

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